Serie A Predictions

How we predict Serie A matches

Every Serie A prediction on this page comes from the same expected-goals model we run across Europe's top five leagues. We measure the quality of chances each team creates and concedes in its recent home and away matches, work out how many goals that points to for this particular fixture, and turn it into a predicted scoreline. No form guides, no head-to-head records, no pundit opinion — just what the shots say.

Across eleven backtested seasons our top picks have come in at a 74% win rate, returning +8% against real bookmaker odds. Every prediction we publish is scored against the actual result and the record is public. See the full track record →

What the numbers say about Serie A right now

Serie A has the widest gap of the five leagues between chances created and goals scored — 3.36 expected goals a game against 2.90 real ones. That gap is where the value is. It points to teams creating more than the scoreline suggests, and finishing tends to catch up.

So far this season Serie A games have averaged 2.90 goals from 3.36 expected goals, with 44% home wins and 18% draws across the 20 clubs and 380 fixtures of the campaign.

Get the full picture

Predicted scorelines are free on this page and always will be. Win probabilities for every match, our top picks, and the value bets where our numbers disagree with the bookmakers are for subscribers — from £4.99 a month, with June and July free. See what's included →