Ligue 1 Predictions
xG-powered match predictions for the current gameweek.
Current Gameweek
How we predict Ligue 1 matches
Every Ligue 1 prediction on this page comes from the same expected-goals model we run across Europe's top five leagues. We measure the quality of chances each team creates and concedes in its recent home and away matches, work out how many goals that points to for this particular fixture, and turn it into a predicted scoreline. No form guides, no head-to-head records, no pundit opinion — just what the shots say.
Across eleven backtested seasons our top picks have come in at a 74% win rate, returning +8% against real bookmaker odds. Every prediction we publish is scored against the actual result and the record is public. See the full track record →
What the numbers say about Ligue 1 right now
Ligue 1 is the biggest outlier we track: 3.34 expected goals a game producing only 2.76 real ones, the largest shortfall of the five leagues. Scorelines here have been consistently below what the chances warranted, which is precisely the signal an xG model is built to pick up.
So far this season Ligue 1 games have averaged 2.76 goals from 3.34 expected goals, with 40% home wins and 29% draws across the 18 clubs and 306 fixtures of the campaign.
Get the full picture
Predicted scorelines are free on this page and always will be. Win probabilities for every match, our top picks, and the value bets where our numbers disagree with the bookmakers are for subscribers — from £4.99 a month, with June and July free. See what's included →