What Is xG (Expected Goals)? A Simple Explanation
Expected Goals (xG) is the most important stat in modern football analysis. Here's what it actually means, how it works, and why you should care about it.
Read more →Football predictions powered by Expected Goals
We don't pretend to know the future. We show you what the data says — and we prove our track record.
Our Track Record
Updated automatically after every gameweek. No hiding, no cherry-picking.
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Result Accuracy
Win/Draw/Loss correct
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Exact Score
Correct scoreline
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Predictions Made
This season
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Value Bet ROI
Where model disagrees with odds
This Week's Predictions
How It Works
1
Collect xG Data
We track Expected Goals data for every shot in every match across the top 5 European leagues. This tells us how many goals a team should have scored based on shot quality — not just how many they did score.
2
Build the Model
Rolling home and away xG averages feed into a Poisson probability model. This calculates the probability of every possible scoreline — from 0-0 to 5-5 and beyond.
3
Compare to Odds
We compare our model's probabilities to bookmaker odds. When our model significantly disagrees with the market, that's a value opportunity — and we flag it.
4
Track Everything
Every prediction is logged and checked against actual results. Our accuracy stats update automatically — no cherry-picking, no hiding bad weeks. Full transparency.
This Week's Value Bets
Where our xG model disagrees with bookmaker odds.
Newcastle vs Aston Villa
Home Win
Model: 54%
Best odds imply: 42%
+12% edge
Dortmund vs Bayern Munich
Draw
Model: 28%
Best odds imply: 20%
+8% edge
⚠️ Value bets represent statistical observations where our model disagrees with market odds. This is not gambling advice. BeGambleAware.org
From the Blog
Why xG Is a Better Predictor Than Form Tables
Form tables and recent results are the default way most fans judge teams. But xG data tells a far more accurate story about what's likely to happen next.
Read more →How the Poisson Distribution Predicts Football Scores
The Poisson distribution is the mathematical backbone of most football score prediction models. Here's how it works, explained without the jargon.
Read more →
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