Bundesliga Predictions

How we predict Bundesliga matches

Every Bundesliga prediction on this page comes from the same expected-goals model we run across Europe's top five leagues. We measure the quality of chances each team creates and concedes in its recent home and away matches, work out how many goals that points to for this particular fixture, and turn it into a predicted scoreline. No form guides, no head-to-head records, no pundit opinion — just what the shots say.

Across eleven backtested seasons our top picks have come in at a 74% win rate, returning +8% against real bookmaker odds. Every prediction we publish is scored against the actual result and the record is public. See the full track record →

What the numbers say about Bundesliga right now

The Bundesliga is comfortably the highest-scoring league we cover — 3.81 goals a game, and expected goals almost exactly matching at 3.92. That alignment is unusual and useful: it means chances are being converted at close to the rate they should be, so the underlying numbers are a strong guide to what happens next.

So far this season Bundesliga games have averaged 3.81 goals from 3.92 expected goals, with 53% home wins and 19% draws across the 18 clubs and 306 fixtures of the campaign.

Get the full picture

Predicted scorelines are free on this page and always will be. Win probabilities for every match, our top picks, and the value bets where our numbers disagree with the bookmakers are for subscribers — from £4.99 a month, with June and July free. See what's included →