La Liga Predictions
xG-powered match predictions for the current gameweek.
Current Gameweek
How we predict La Liga matches
Every La Liga prediction on this page comes from the same expected-goals model we run across Europe's top five leagues. We measure the quality of chances each team creates and concedes in its recent home and away matches, work out how many goals that points to for this particular fixture, and turn it into a predicted scoreline. No form guides, no head-to-head records, no pundit opinion — just what the shots say.
Across eleven backtested seasons our top picks have come in at a 74% win rate, returning +8% against real bookmaker odds. Every prediction we publish is scored against the actual result and the record is public. See the full track record →
What the numbers say about La Liga right now
La Liga has produced more goals per game this season than the Premier League, and the home side has won 45% of the time. Our model reads each team's home and away numbers separately, which matters more in a league where home advantage is doing this much work.
So far this season La Liga games have averaged 3.04 goals from 3.25 expected goals, with 45% home wins and 25% draws across the 20 clubs and 380 fixtures of the campaign.
Get the full picture
Predicted scorelines are free on this page and always will be. Win probabilities for every match, our top picks, and the value bets where our numbers disagree with the bookmakers are for subscribers — from £4.99 a month, with June and July free. See what's included →