About OriginalXG

What We Do

OriginalXG generates football match predictions using Expected Goals (xG) data and Poisson probability modelling. We cover the top 5 European leagues: Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga, Serie A, and Ligue 1.

Unlike tipster sites that rely on gut feeling, recent form, or head-to-head records, our predictions are built entirely on shot quality data. xG measures the quality of chances a team creates and concedes — not just the scoreline — which makes it a far more reliable predictor of future performance.

How the Model Works

1. Data collection: We track per-shot xG data for every match across all 5 leagues, calculating rolling home and away averages for each team.
2. Expected goals calculation: For each upcoming match, we combine the home team's attacking xG with the away team's defensive xG (and vice versa) to estimate expected goals for each side.
3. Poisson modelling: These expected goals feed into a Poisson distribution, which calculates the probability of every possible scoreline — from 0-0 to 5-5.
4. Outcome probabilities: We sum scoreline probabilities to get overall home win, draw, and away win percentages.
5. Value detection: We compare our model's probabilities to bookmaker odds. When our model significantly disagrees with the market, we flag it as a value opportunity.

Our Data Sources

• xG data: Understat.com — per-shot Expected Goals data for every match since 2014
• Odds data: The Odds API — real-time odds from 15+ UK bookmakers
• Lineup data: Football-Data.org — confirmed team lineups for final predictions

Prediction Schedule

Each gameweek, we publish predictions in three stages:

Version	When	What's included
Early Preview	Monday/Tuesday	xG-based predictions with current odds snapshot
Updated Preview	Thursday/Friday	Adjusted for injuries, suspensions, European fatigue. Updated odds movement.
Final Prediction	Pre-kickoff (Saturday)	Updated for confirmed lineups. This is the version tracked for accuracy.

Accuracy & Transparency

Every prediction is logged and compared against actual results. Our accuracy dashboard updates automatically after every gameweek — no cherry-picking, no hiding bad weeks.

We also compare our accuracy against Chris Sutton's BBC Sport predictions and the bookmaker favourite. We believe in proving our track record, not just claiming it.

What We're Not

• We are not a tipping service. We don't tell you what to bet on.
• We are not affiliated with any bookmaker. We don't earn commission from gambling.
• We show you what the data says and let you draw your own conclusions.

FAQ

Why xG instead of just looking at results?

Results include a lot of noise — lucky deflections, missed penalties, goalkeeper heroics. xG strips out the randomness and measures the underlying quality of chances. A team that creates 2.5 xG per game but only scores 1.5 goals is due for a correction upward. xG helps us see that before the results catch up.

How accurate is the Poisson model?

No model predicts football perfectly — the sport is beautifully unpredictable. Our target is >45% accuracy on match outcomes (random guessing would get you ~33%) and >12% on exact scores (random is ~3%). Check our live accuracy stats to see how we're doing.

What does "value bet" mean?

A value bet is where our model assigns a higher probability to an outcome than the bookmaker's odds imply. For example, if our model says Home Win has a 50% chance but the bookmaker's odds imply only 40%, that's a +10% edge. It doesn't mean it will happen — it means the odds are more generous than our data suggests they should be.

Do you cover cup matches?

Currently we focus on league matches only, where we have the richest xG data for consistent modelling. Cup matches with teams from different divisions are harder to model reliably.